The simulation model PREVENT estimates the effect of changes in risk factor prevalence, and interventions on disease occurrence and/or mortality, thereby taking into account 'autonomous' trends in incidence. It was developed at the department of Public Health at Erasmus MC Rotterdam around 1990 as a tool to translate results of epidemiological studies into estimates of potential health benefits of preventive interventions in a specific population.
The model takes into account:

• associations between risk factors and diseases
• associations between risk factors
• time dimensions (including latency and lag times)
• projected changes in demography
• projections of incidence of disease independent of the risk factors under study in the model (autonomous trends)

For Eurocadet, we prepared the PREVENT version 3.01 (beta) thereby improving the following:

• it can deal with incidence data (only), using causal webs on the one hand and projected demography on the other hand produced by statistical agencies rather than calculating future population sizes based on mortality and fertility rates
• it models the effects of (multiple) interventions on the prevalence of risk factors by birth cohort
• it deals with both categorical and continuous exposure variables, giving better estimations because risk factor exposures and the effects of interventions are often measured on a continuous scale

For more information on Prevent or Program download please visit this link.