| WP6 |  |
Work Package Leader: Philippe Autier
This work package is responsible for making projections of the future cancer incidence in Europe based on past trends in incidence and, where needed, mortality rates.
Data processing
This section describe the overall method for estimation of projected incidence in Europe for the Eurocadet project.
Following a meeting at IARC with Jacques Ferlay, Freddy Bray and Mathieu Boniol, the 1st of February 2007, the following general approach was decided upon:
- Use the Age-period-cohort model (such as in NORDPRED package).
- Use the incidence data published in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) Vol. I to XIII to predict incidence in the following countries: Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France (6 registries combined), Germany (Saarland), Iceland, Italy (4 registries combined), Latvia, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland (2 registries combined), Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain (5 registries combined), Sweden, Switzerland (4 registries combined) and UK (5 registries combined).
- For the European countries for which no historical (at least 15 years of consecutive incidence data exist, either regional or national), predict the mortality (source WHO mortality database) up to 2020. Create a “representative” pool dataset obtained from neighbouring countries, predict incidence AND mortality up to 2020 for this dataset, and apply the cancer-, sex- and age-specific M/I ratios to the predicted country mortality.
- The cancer sites are:
Oral cavity, Pharynx, Oesophagus, Stomach, Liver, Pancreas, Larynx, Lung, Bladder, Kidney, Cervix uteri, Corpus uteri, colo-rectum, breast. - Use the UNO/EUROSTAT population estimates for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 to predict the number of new cancer cases
- No confidence intervals will be computed
Two options for data sources:
- Wait for Cancer Incidence in 5 Continent Volume 9 data (2008) in order to obtain more precise predictions (additional mid-point in 2000)
- Start working with the current CI5 data (latest mid-point: 1995).
Because Cancer Incidence in 5 Continent Volume 9 is expected to appear soon, we decided to wait for these data which will enable more stable estimates for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 to be used as reference predicions without the use of PREVENT.