Work Package Leader: Jan Willem Coebergh

In this work package, all the work done in the work packages 2 to 6 will be synthesized and used as an input to our modelling software: Prevent.
Prevent uses these collected data as input in order to project the future incidence of the 12 selected cancers in Europe. This will be done on the basis of a set of scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic, etc. Effects of exposures and latency time will be modelled.
Outcomes based on the different scenarios will be compared to those of the forecasts from WP 6, which predicts future incidence based on trends in incidence in the past, without taking into account changes in risk factor exposure. The outcomes of the scenarios provide the basis for the potential range of effects up to well into the 21st century, as far as estimates allow us to do so.

As input for Prevent we will use the collected data on:

• age-, sex- and country-specific risk factor prevalence (WP2)
• age- and sex-specific relative risk estimates (WP2)
• information on socio-economic differences in cancer incidence (WP3)
• information on socio-economic differences in risk factor exposure (WP3)
• effects of existing interventions (WP4)
• efficacy of existing interventions (WP5)
• current incidence rates and population forecasts as input in order to project the future incidence of the 12 selected cancers (WP7)